Well friends, you'll be happy to know that the Great Barrier Reef has been saved.
Over the past few months our government has been pulling out the stops to prevent UNESCO from listing the Reef as 'In Danger'. The Government's 'Ambassador for the Reef', Cairns MP Warren Entsch, took a bunch of foreign ambassadors on a tourist jaunt to some choice snorkeling spots. Meanwhile the woman who holds the title of Minister for the Environment, Sussan Ley, hopped on a RAAF jet with a bunch of advisors and visited capitals around the world, twisting the arms of the governments of the 21 countries on UNESCO's World Heritage Committee. In the end, at least 11 countries voted to delay a decision for at least another year. The list apparently includes Saint Kitts and Nevis, Ethiopia, Hungary, Mali, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Russia and Spain.
Minister Ley said:
“Our concern was always that UNESCO had sought an immediate ‘in danger listing’ without appropriate consultation, without a site visit and without all the latest information, and it is clear that this process has concerned not only Australia but other nations as well,”
So, if they had more recent information, and joined Mr Entsch on a snorkeling trip, this would change their minds?
Now you know our government are not climate deniers, right? Sure, even though Craig Kelly is gone they still have George Christensen, Matt Canavan and Barnaby Joyce, but the government's official position is that climate change is real, that they are working hard to reduce our emissions (through Technology Not Taxes) and will Meet And Beat Our Paris Commitments. They'd even like, in some unspecified way, to get to net zero emissions 'as soon as possible'.
But this is all theory. Our government talks like this, but whenever anything comes up that is specifically related to taking any concrete climate action they refuse it. They say they won't commit to net zero by 2050 until they know how much it will cost - but they have never commissioned anyone in Treasury, the Climate Change Authority, the Environment Department, or even the Menzies Institute to work out the answer to this question. This is because the longer they don't try to find out the answer, the longer they can keep saying they won't commit until they know the answer.
If anyone suggests they should accelerate the deployment of renewable energy and shut our coal and gas generators early they claim that this is impossible. They even promise to spend money building more coal and gas generators, while vetoing funding for renewables.
When someone suggests that they should support a rapid rollout of electric vehicles - say, by reducing import duties on them, or buying them for the government fleet - the government screams that it will be the end of the weekend and Angus Taylor says he has no intention of subsidising luxury vehicles and in any case he would never drive one.
And so on.
Likewise, if anyone suggests they should notice and acknowledge an actual effect of climate change and take action to address it our government enters a state of furious denial. During the 2019-20 bushfires we had the Prime Minister and ministers furiously talking about arson, exploding cowshit, the Greens preventing hazard reduction and not holding a hose. Anything to avoid mentioning climate change.
In 2009, the Reef was considered to be at a crossroads between a positive, well-managed future and a less certain one. In 2014, it was seen as an icon under pressure, with continued efforts needed to address key threats. Since then, the Region has further deteriorated and, in 2019, Australia is caring for a changed and less resilient Reef. The challenge to restore Reef resilience is big, but not insurmountable. However, it requires mitigation of climate change and effective implementation of the Reef 2050 Long-Term Sustainability Plan.
So sure, if they read the April 2021 Reef Health Update they would read a slightly more positive short-term message - we had a cooler summer thanks to La Nina, and not many cyclones, so there has been some recovery from the recent bleaching events. But how are we going with that big challenge? We are implementing bits of the Reef 2050 Long-Term Sustainability Plan, other bits we are not. Meanwhile, we are still waiting for that piece of information about how much it will cost to take action on climate change before we do anything. So yes, the reef is in danger.
But fortunately this information will not appear on the World Heritage Register, at least not for another year. I would like to think that our government is buying itself a bit of time so it can go into the meeting next year with a fabulous plan to rapidly cut emissions and save the Reef. But I would also like to think the moon is made of green cheese and the tooth fairy is real, since then the planet would be a much funnier place than it is right now.
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What we are seeing here is a prime example of the art of creating alternative reality.
Some aspects of this art are so blatant that anyone with half a brain can see them for what they are - like the people who claim that the Bureau of Meteorology's temperature records show increasing temperatures because they changed their thermometers, or that CO2 can't possibly cause global warming because it's odourless and colourless. Only idiots believe these things.
Other methods of presenting alternative reality are more successful because they are about things most of us don't really understand. For instance, not many of us understand the technicalities of electricity generation. So when the Minister for Emissions Reduction says we can't move quickly to a zero-emissions electricity grid because we need solid base-load power to ensure the lights stay on and prices don't rise and this can only come from coal or gas, it's easy to believe him. How many of us have the knowledge to say this isn't true? I sure don't. But the thing is, people who actually know about this stuff, like the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) which runs the system, know that he's talking nonsense. They have a plan to phase out all the coal and most of the gas by 2040, which is not only their most climate friendly option but also their cheapest. Yet how many of us have read this? (I have.) And of those who have, how many have understood it? (Sort of, a bit...).
What is going on with Sussan Ley and the reef is a slightly more subtle alternative reality technique, one politicians use all the time without us noticing. This is to create a wholly different narrative, a world in which we just don't talk about climate change and talk about something else instead - like the notion that the proposed In Danger listing was suggested by China (it wasn't), that the problem was the process, that scientists recommending the listing didn't have all the facts (the facts are publicly available) and that this is a problem of diplomacy and international relations. Sussan Ley has been successful in winning this battle, she is a fantastic capable minister, the In Danger listing has been averted. Come and visit the reef, it is beautiful and will last forever, nothing In Danger about it.
This story is as real as you want it to be. We all love a good story and the diplomacy really happened even if other bits of it didn't. Trouble is that while humans love a good story the Great Barrier Reef couldn't care less, it doesn't even speak English. It may not be In Danger but it is still in danger. If we don't act quickly it will die and the World Heritage Register will be the least of our problems.
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To be fair to Sussan Ley, Scott Morrison and all that lot, they are not alone in playing the Alternative Reality game, and they are far from masters of the art. After all, Ley's strategy is fairly transparent. The Labor Party are the true masters, to the extent that it is often hard to tell that they are doing it.
You won't ever hear a Labor politician saying that climate change is not real, or attempting to deny that more intense bushfires and droughts are a consequence. They are very earnest and sincere in their acknowledgement of these things, and if the Federal Party currently lacks much in the way of concrete policy to address it, they assure us that they are serious about getting some.
They are focused on creating a different sort of alternative reality.
Take this for an example. On the 13th of July 2021 the Queensland Minister for Resources, Scott Stewart, put out a press release celebrating a bit of mining industry news.
Central Queensland mine expansion brings more than 150 jobs
"This venture will create more than 150 jobs through investment in underground expansions and completion of rehabilitation obligations. With a predicted mine life of 22 years including rehabilitation, these are lasting jobs and will create long-term royalties that will benefit all Queenslanders. This investment is a strong sign of the growing confidence in our resources sector as Queensland continues its road to economic recovery."
And the release continues
The project will have a total production of 13.9 million tonnes of metallurgical coal during its lifespan. Mr Stewart said the Palaszczuk Government would continue to support the resources sector for the royalties and jobs it generates, particularly in regional Queensland.
"The resources sector supports more than 84,000 jobs across Queensland and represents $44 billion in exports,” he said. “The sector has played a vital role in supporting jobs during the pandemic and will continue to do so into the future. Queensland is naturally blessed with the world’s highest quality metallurgical coal, which the world needs to make steel."
So there it is. Coal, at least metallurgical coal, is good for humanity and our government is all for it. It produces jobs (not 84,000 though, that's all resource jobs not just coal), pays royalties to government, and the world needs it to make steel. We are triply blessed to have this wonderful resource there for the digging.
There is no mention in this press release that making steel by using coal is responsible for 5% of all global emissions. It doesn't mention that every kilogram of coal burned produces about two kilograms of CO2, so these 13.9 million tonnes of coal will produce about 28 million tonnes of CO2 - more than 5% of Australia's annual domestic greenhouse gas emissions, not counting the emissions created in expanding the mine, extracting the coal and transporting it from Moranbah to various parts of the world. Just from one mine that is already part-way through its extractive life.
There is also no mention in this press release of the fact that you don't actually need coal to make steel. You use coal to strip the oxygen from iron ore but you can also use hydrogen which you can make and use without emitting any carbon. The reason we are still using coal is because it's cheaper, and the reason it's cheaper is that we don't factor the cost of carbon pollution into the cost of the steel. We assume the pollution is free, but it's not. Global warming, which this pollution causes, is vastly costly. If the actually in danger reef dies, we will lose a $5.4b per year tourism industry and 69,000 jobs. Not to mention that farm profits have declined by 25% in the past two decades as a result of climate change. This is who is paying for those 150 mining jobs and that cheap steel.
Do you see what the Minister has done here? There are some things we talk about - the wonderful jobs and revenue generated by this expanded mine, the marvels of its high quality metallurgical coal, the royalties that will roll into government coffers to pay for our hospitals and schools and the police we send out to arrest climate protestors. There are some things we don't - the destructive consequences of burning this coal, its economic costs and the possibility of doing things differently. This narrative aims to lock us in, to make us think we can go on burning such coal forever and ever amen, praise be to God for his marvellous carboniferous blessings. All without uttering a single word of climate denial.
This is not an isolated example. Labor leaders are as keen as Coalition ones to don the hard hat, hop on the giant digger and spruik the benefits of coal and their commitment to its ongoing extraction and sale. Anthony Albanese has done it in the Hunter and in Central Queensland. Annastacia Palaszczuk has done it many times in various Queensland locations. They are telling us we can have our cake and eat it too. The trick is to never talk about climate action and coal in the same media opportunity. If you are launching a solar or wind farm, a big battery or a grant to develop clean hydrogen production, you talk about climate change, jobs and growth. If you are attending the opening of a coal mine or promising to repair a recently exploded coal fired power station you talk about jobs and reliable electricity and how stupid the Greens are. If you can hold these things sufficiently far apart you can create a version of reality in which you can simultaneously prevent catastrophic climate change and continue to have a coal industry, as if these two things were not connected. It's a complex, difficult trick but they have been practicing it for a long time.
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Michael Mann says there are five stages of climate denial.
- It's not warming.
- The warming is natural not human-caused.
- The warming will not be too bad.
- It will be too expensive to do anything about it.
- It's too late.
But I think Mann and others have missed something in this typology. The most powerful form of denial of all is to simply focus on something else instead. This is, perhaps, a kind of passive denial and by far the most pervasive in our society. Climate change is one of those things that polite people don't talk about at parties. We know it is happening, if someone asks us we will acknowledge it. Even our reigning Liberal and National Party politicians can be brought to reluctantly acknowledge that climate change is real and serious. But when it comes to running the business of government they act as if it is not.
The tragedy is that this blocks change more effectively than active denial. Active denial can be refuted with facts. A denier is entering into the debate, even if they are doing so dishonestly. They are acknowledging the importance of the question. It keeps us talking about it.
Our leaders are not talking about it. They are making policy and doing politics as if it were not very important. It is not featuring on our nightly news - even the ABC rarely mentions it - because it has been removed from the political drama they report on each evening. During elections politicians from both sides attend coal mine openings and talk about the bright future of coal and gas. It is left to the Greens and a few brave independents to name the elephant in the room, only to be howled down by both major parties and told they have 'zero credibility on energy policy', to quote Queensland's Energy Minister. This ensures that there is no momentum for change, even as the need for change becomes more urgent with each passing year..
If we want change, we can't afford to accept this narrative. Whenever our politicians announce a coal mine approval or expansion, a new gas well or the glorious performance of a coal generator we need to be sure to say the words 'climate change' in response. They, and their audiences, need to hear it continually. This is the only way we will prevent Stage 5 denial from becoming reality. It is already late but it is never too late to make the world a better place. Sure we should have started before now, but today is all we have. Let's seize it!
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